☢ Dounreay
Executive Summary
11.0% anomalous change at Dounreay — stable decommissioning site confirms baseline monitoring capability
Only 11.0% of monitored pixels (45,172 out of 409,287) show anomalous change — the lowest rate across all fully-analysed sites. The NW Perimeter is entirely GREEN (0% anomalous), confirming site stability. The Central Complex shows localised change (20.8%) consistent with targeted demolition works. The Coastal Buffer shows moderate change (14.6%) reflecting the harsh North Atlantic environment.
Key Metrics
Risk Assessment
Satellite Imagery
Methodology
Same-season comparison (July 2024 vs July 2025) using Sentinel-2 NDVI analysis. At 11.0% anomalous change, Dounreay shows significantly less activity than active construction sites (Hinkley 51.2%, Sellafield 33.1%), which validates the system’s ability to correctly characterise a site in managed decline rather than active construction.
Confidence note: High confidence: low anomaly rate (11%) means most of the site is within normal parameters. The detected changes in the Central Complex are concentrated and high-magnitude, suggesting genuine targeted activity rather than noise.
Commercial Value
Remote sites like Dounreay benefit most from satellite monitoring — the cost of sending inspection teams to the Caithness coast is 3–4x higher than southern sites, making the ROI case even stronger.
Strategic Implications
Dounreay proves that satellite monitoring correctly differentiates site activity levels. A decommissioning site in managed decline shows 11% change vs 51% at an active mega-construction site. This calibration is essential for automated alerting — the system needs to know what ‘normal’ looks like for each site category. For the NDA, this means reliable monitoring across their entire estate, from active sites to dormant ones.